Weekly Teknikal analisys gold

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BUBBLES… WHERE? The current bull market in gold will turn 11 years old next February. This incredible run has been historic because gold has gained each year since 2001. It even ended 2008 on an up-note. And this year is unlikely to be an exception as its gain is still in the double digits, so far. Chart 1 provides a good example of this bull market in gold compared to two famous bull markets of the past… the huge gold run in the 1970s and the tech bubble in the 1990s. Here you can see that this current bull market has been modest in comparison, but gold is on track to jump up in a frenzied rise in the years just ahead.

Meanwhile, gold could still decline further in the upcoming months. But once the current downward correction is clearly over, you should be well positioned and ready for the train to take-off. Use any weakness to buy the gold and silver you’ve been wanting to buy, but were waiting for a good opportunity. HOW FAR DOWN? Considering today’s uncertain times, anything could happen. For this reason, our bottom line recommendation for new positions is to buy gradually over this month and next in order to average in at a good price. Many people have been worried about this gold decline, but look at it as a healthy thing. It’s down 16% so far from its record $1900+ high, which has been a small decline compared to the tremendous rise it’s had since 2008. In perspective, gold rose almost 170% since its lows in 2008. That’s 170% in three years! And gold’s steepest decline since then has been the current one at 16%. This was a rise we call a C rise when gold rises in the strongest intermediate leg up in a bull market. In fact, the bull market’s strength is reinforced when C rises hit record highs (see Chart 2A). The last C rise, from April 2009 to Sept 2011 was phenomenal. It lasted longer than any other C rise over the last 10 years, and it was much stronger. Gold gained almost 120% in 2½ years without much of a decline to speak of. So you can understand why we say the 16% decline has so far been moderate.

We say so far because gold’s indicator still has room to fall further before it’s oversold (see Chart 2B). For now, gold has been holding steady above $1600, but if gold closes below $1594 (the low in late September) and stays there, then we could see gold fall further to its next support near the $1550 level. But it doesn’t stop there. In a worst case decline, we could see gold test its 65-week moving average. This would be a normal occurrence for a D decline, which is what we’re calling the decline that is currently underway (see Chart 2A). Although unlikely, should this happen, the bull market would still be intact, and you should then buy with both hands. It’s not a coincidence that the most powerful C rise in the entire bull market happened once the stronger phase of the bull market began in September 2009. This tells us that, we want to be ready for next leg of an even stronger phase of the bull market. And with gold currently showing renewed strength, this could happen sooner rather than later. The bull market is far from being over. This is accumulation time...

Grafik ini menunjukkan Kapan membeli dan kapan anda harus menjual Emas

Gold Technical analisys

6 Oktober 2011 Emas mencoba untuk kembali ke jalur hijau di wilayah tengah 1700 di pentalan. Langkah ini telah sangat berombak dan tumpang tindih. Pertanyaan besar adalah apakah rendah di tempat. Trend line putus-putus putih telah ditambahkan untuk menunjukkan dukungan yang kami diadakan di ---- tetapi idealnya --- garis channel bawah hijau harapan awal kami dan masih bisa jadi jika harga akan ditolak di daerah 1700-1730 dan kemudian berbalik kembali di bawah itu. JIKA hal ini terjadi dan rendah belum dibuat belum --- peluang menguntungkan puncak harus mengembangkan tepat minggu depan sekitar garis tren yang tengah hijau. Howeve r - jika harga bisa menutup kembali di atas garis tengah secara mingguan --- bergerak kembali menuju rata-rata bergerak dekat 1800 bisa berkembang.

FAIR VALUE FOR GOLD PRICE

Probability Fair Value for Gold is currently:
Current Probability of 1250 gold by 2012 10%
Current Probability of 1388 gold by 2012 28%
Current Probability of 1550 gold by 2012 62%
Current Probability of 2000 gold by 2012 84%
Current Probability of 2500 gold by 2012 24%
Current Probability of 3000 gold by 2012 03%

Current Silver Fair Value is $25 ($21) as an Investment and $18 ($16) as a Commodity.

Looking ahead, we see a mixed to positive picture for Gold but NEGATIVE for Silver by Q2 2012! 2.BY SPRING TO FALL 2012 THE SILVER BUBBLE IS LIKELY TO BURST (85%+ Probability).

Characteristics of a Bubble:
1. Price Insensitive
2. There is no price "investors" are willing to sell
3. Like Tulip mania, when investors sold all their assets (homes, business) for a tulip, so do some "investors" today.

Comments:
* •Gold/XAU ratio 9 well above classic buy signal of 5.
* •Gold/Silver ratio of 44 is too low – P3 target 58-64. (H1 2011 we reversed at 32 for a P1 target of 44-48). 10/1 = 54.
* •Short term Gold: Seasonality shifting positive (less relevant factor).

THREE VIEWS OF GOLD over next 18 months*


1. Range bound $1500 to $2000
2. RALLY to $2000 - $3000
3. Return to VALUE: $1380*

* •Hold Gold as a hedge.
* •Gold remains cheap insurance against both declining US dollar and inflation.
* Gold and precious metals can perform well in either an inflationary or deflationary environment.
* •Strong Investment Demand is driving precious metals. But remember: Investors can become fickle. Remember how Oil dropped from $147 to $38? Silver bugs especially beware!

2012 GOLD TRADING RANGE $1340 to $2360.

2012 SILVER TRADING TARGET $21-$28 or lower ($16-$18).

Gold is a commodity, currency, inflation measure & crisis metal
Q4 2011 Gold FV: $1388
Commodity FV: $1089
Currency FV: $1340
Inflation Metal FV: $1200
Crisis FV: $1920-$2000